by Judith Curry Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication. Well, I hope you are not overdosing on the issue of sea level rise. But this paper is somewhat different, a philosophy of science paper. Sort of how we think about thinking. I would appreciate any comments, as well as suggestions as to which journals I might submit to. I have two in mind, but am open to suggestions (and I may need backups). Thanks in advance for your comments. Sea level rise: What’s the worst case? Abstract. The objective of this paper is to provide a broader framing for how we bound possible scenarios for 21st century sea level rise, in particular how we assess and reason about worst-case scenarios. This paper integrates climate science with broader perspectives from the fields of philosophy of science and risk management. Modal logic is used as a basis for describing construction of the scenario range, including modal inductivism and falsification. The logic of partial … [Read more...] about Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?
Structured what if technique risk analysis
Have you ever stood in a field full of cows? It’s obvious that they’re aware of one another, but in a minimal kind of way. They tend to stay loosely clumped together as they graze, and they don’t deliberately knock into other members of the herd. Shouting gets their attention, but it tends to elicit a flickering inspection at most, which subsides into cud-munching indifference when they realise you represent neither a threat nor a treat. Cows don’t gauge how to respond to sights, sounds and smells by carefully studying the subtleties of one another’s reactions (which is why they can startle each other into stampeding). When you’re with a herd of cows, you’re basically alone. Stand or walk among a herd of elephants, however, and you’ll appreciate how different the experience is. Even the most peaceful group feels electric with communicative action. There’s continuous eye contact, touching, trunk and ear movements to which others … [Read more...] about If elephants aren’t persons yet, could they be one day? – Don Ross
Sections SEARCH Skip to content Skip to site index Science Subscribe Log In Subscribe Log In Today’s Paper Advertisement Supported by Barbara Rae-Venter’s genealogical sleuthing acumen has inspired others to help law enforcement with unsolved cases, as well as an ethics and privacy debate. ByHeather Murphy Aug. 29, 2018 Much to the frustration of her proud son, “I was worried about my safety, which is why it’s taken me so long to come out of the closet,” said Barbara Rae-Venter. Last week, the 70-year-old former attorney, who lives in California, decided she was ready, allowing Paul Holes, a retired investigator at the Contra Costa District Attorney’s Office to name her in a tweet: The genetic genealogist who helped find #GSK Deangelo has given me permission to divulge her name - Barbara Rae-Venter. Without Barbara's help we would probably still be building family trees. She gave us structure … [Read more...] about She Helped Crack the Golden State Killer Case. Here’s What She’s Going to Do Next.
Opinion Alzheimer's Dementia brain Johnson and Johnson recently announced that it was halting a clinical trial for a new Alzheimer’s drug after safety issues emerged. This latest failure adds to the dozens of large, costly clinical trials that have shown no effect in treating this devastating disease. The growing list of failures should give us pause for thought – have we got the causes of Alzheimer’s all wrong? In the first analysis of the disease, the German physician, Alois Alzheimer, noted odd changes in the brain of a patient who died of the condition. Alzheimer identified two kinds of protein aggregates that are not found in younger brains: plaques that are found between brain cells and tangles that are found inside brain cells. Later research identified the proteins that made up the plaques as amyloid and those that form the tangles as tau. What these structures actually do is still under debate. Recommended Slideshows 51 50 Best-Selling Albums in U.S. … [Read more...] about What Is the Cause of Alzheimer’s? Scientists Think Insulin Could Hold the Answer
Yahoo!?Here is some pretty disclosurey disclosure:If our security measures are breached, our products and services may be perceived as not being secure, users and customers may curtail or stop using our products and services, and we may incur significant legal and financial exposure.Our products and services involve the storage and transmission of Yahoo’s users’ and customers’ personal and proprietary information in our facilities and on our equipment, networks and corporate systems. Security breaches expose us to a risk of loss of this information, litigation, remediation costs, increased costs for security measures, loss of revenue, damage to our reputation, and potential liability. ... Security breaches or unauthorized access have resulted in and may in the future result in a combination of significant legal and financial exposure, increased remediation and other costs, damage to our reputation and a loss of confidence in the security of our products, services … [Read more...] about What If, Hypothetically, Yahoo Had Been Hacked?