AUSTIN, Texas—With rain hammering outside, Zack Malitz stood in a warehouse space lit by strands of bistro lights and began to reveal the campaign strategy of Beto O’Rourke in exacting detail. Malitz, who was the field director of O’Rourke’s Senate campaign, is a tall 30-year-old with thick glasses and a haircut that over the course of an election season can drift inexorably toward mopheadedness. He laid out the exact numbers of potential voters the campaign believed it should try to reach, how many of those voters had a cellphone contact available, and—with a bit of arithmetic—a critical sum that would drive the campaign's final push: the exact figure of volunteer phone-bank shifts he believed would be necessary to win the state. This kind of granular campaign information is normally considered top secret, the kind of thing strategists guard behind passwords and fire underlings upon suspicion of leaking. If Malitz’s talk had resided in an … [Read more...] about Here’s What Beto Could Unleash on Trump
Structured what if technique risk analysis
In 1791, Julien Raimond published one of the first critiques of racial prejudice. Raimond was a free man of racially mixed ancestry from the French colony of Saint-Domingue (today the country of Haiti), and his essay ‘Observations on the Origin and Progress of White People’s Prejudice against People of Colour’ argued that legal discrimination against people of African origin resulted from psychological biases. Raimond’s work was the first sustained account of how racial prejudice operates – and how it might be eliminated. Today, the idea that unconscious biases permeate individual psychology, prompting discriminatory behaviours and perpetuating social inequality, is central to discussions of race in politics, academia and everyday life. But this idea was the product of a specific 18th-century moment, with surprising and troubling motivations behind it.Raimond was an activist for the rights of people of colour. In 1789, he left his home in Saint-Domingue … [Read more...] about What if ‘prejudice’ isn’t what causes racism? – Blake Smith
by Judith Curry Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication. Well, I hope you are not overdosing on the issue of sea level rise. But this paper is somewhat different, a philosophy of science paper. Sort of how we think about thinking. I would appreciate any comments, as well as suggestions as to which journals I might submit to. I have two in mind, but am open to suggestions (and I may need backups). Thanks in advance for your comments. Sea level rise: What’s the worst case? Abstract. The objective of this paper is to provide a broader framing for how we bound possible scenarios for 21st century sea level rise, in particular how we assess and reason about worst-case scenarios. This paper integrates climate science with broader perspectives from the fields of philosophy of science and risk management. Modal logic is used as a basis for describing construction of the scenario range, including modal inductivism and falsification. The logic of partial … [Read more...] about Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?
Have you ever stood in a field full of cows? It’s obvious that they’re aware of one another, but in a minimal kind of way. They tend to stay loosely clumped together as they graze, and they don’t deliberately knock into other members of the herd. Shouting gets their attention, but it tends to elicit a flickering inspection at most, which subsides into cud-munching indifference when they realise you represent neither a threat nor a treat. Cows don’t gauge how to respond to sights, sounds and smells by carefully studying the subtleties of one another’s reactions (which is why they can startle each other into stampeding). When you’re with a herd of cows, you’re basically alone. Stand or walk among a herd of elephants, however, and you’ll appreciate how different the experience is. Even the most peaceful group feels electric with communicative action. There’s continuous eye contact, touching, trunk and ear movements to which others … [Read more...] about If elephants aren’t persons yet, could they be one day? – Don Ross
Sections SEARCH Skip to content Skip to site index Science Subscribe Log In Subscribe Log In Today’s Paper Advertisement Supported by Barbara Rae-Venter’s genealogical sleuthing acumen has inspired others to help law enforcement with unsolved cases, as well as an ethics and privacy debate. ByHeather Murphy Aug. 29, 2018 Much to the frustration of her proud son, “I was worried about my safety, which is why it’s taken me so long to come out of the closet,” said Barbara Rae-Venter. Last week, the 70-year-old former attorney, who lives in California, decided she was ready, allowing Paul Holes, a retired investigator at the Contra Costa District Attorney’s Office to name her in a tweet: The genetic genealogist who helped find #GSK Deangelo has given me permission to divulge her name - Barbara Rae-Venter. Without Barbara's help we would probably still be building family trees. She gave us structure … [Read more...] about She Helped Crack the Golden State Killer Case. Here’s What She’s Going to Do Next.